Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season/November
November Welcome to November in the EPAC! As the EPAC shuts down, I do not expect much more activity from here onwards. This is my storm forecast for the rest of the season: Observed May-October Activity: *20 tropical depressions (17 excluding CPAC) *19 tropical storms (17 excluding CPAC) *8 hurricanes *1 major hurricane *ACE of 70.8725 (64.695 excluding CPAC) *180 fatalities *$4.201324 billion (2013 USD) in losses Andrew's Predicted November Activity: *2 tropical depressions (both EPAC + counting TD 18-E) *2 tropical storms (both EPAC) *0 hurricanes *0 major hurricanes *ACE of 7.6750 (all in CPAC region) *No fatalities *$100,000 (2013 USD) in losses Total 2013 PHS Activity: *22 tropical depressions (20 excluding CPAC) *21 tropical storms (19 excluding CPAC) *8 hurricanes *1 major hurricane *ACE of 78.5475 (72.37 excluding CPAC) *180 fatalities *$4.201424 billion (2013 USD) in losses Let's make it a great November! AndrewTalk To Me 21:39, November 1, 2013 (UTC) :Here's my predictions for November in the EPac: :*2 tropical storms (Sonia and Tico) :*0 hurricanes or major hurricanes :I think Sonia is the currently active depression that will strike Mexico, and I think Tico will form in mid-November, peak as a TS, and not affect land. I predict Tico will be the last storm of the season. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:45, November 2, 2013 (UTC) This is the NHC October summary: 000 ABPZ30 KNHC 011650 TWSEP MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM PDT FRI NOV 1 2013 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN DURING OCTOBER WAS ABOVE AVERAGE IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF STORMS...WITH FOUR TROPICAL STORMS FORMING. ONE OF THOSE STORMS...RAYMOND... BECAME THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON. BASED ON A 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY FROM 1981 TO 2010...ABOUT TWO NAMED STORMS DEVELOP IN THE BASIN EVERY YEAR DURING OCTOBER... WITH ONE REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY. A MAJOR HURRICANE OCCURS IN THE BASIN IN OCTOBER ABOUT ONCE EVERY OTHER YEAR. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER IS ABOUT 58 PERCENT OF THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE'.' REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS... WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2013EPAC.SHTML ... $$ HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT We're doing a little better ACEwise than the Atlantic, but since most of the storms this year were really short lived, the ACE is ugly for a season with 19 storms (for comparison, the 2011 AHS had generated an ACE of 126). AndrewTalk To Me 11:13, November 2, 2013 (UTC) : The ACE this year was pretty lackluster because Raymond was our only major hurricane, but considering this is 2013, 42% below average is...well, acceptable, at least we had lots of named storms. Ryan1000 17:42, November 2, 2013 (UTC) 18E.SONIA AOI: Near Mexico Well, as Raymond dies out, a new AOI rises. As it moves west-northwestward, it could possibly develop. It currently has a 20% chance of developing in the next five days. If our 20th tropical storm (18th if the CPAC is excluded) forms from this AOI, 2013 will become the second EPAC season since 1994 (after 2009) to produce 20 tropical storms, and the first season since 2006 to reach the 'S' name. AndrewTalk To Me 12:30, October 26, 2013 (UTC) : This would be Sonia if it's named, first time since 1983, which ran the table at it's time. Ryan1000 14:20, October 26, 2013 (UTC) :: I hope this AOI becomes Sonia. The EPac has been really active this year! [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 03:20, October 27, 2013 (UTC) :::I hope so too. Not sure how strong it will get, but after Raymond, I won't be so bad if it ends up peaking where Narda and Octave did, though hopefully it will get stronger than Priscilla. We are currently at an average of 62.6 kts per storm (60.8 kts per storm if you include Pewa and Unala); we need either a 115-kt Category 4 (if you count the CPAC as part of the EPAC) or a 78-kt Category 1 (if you count the CPAC and EPAC as entirely separate basins) to bring that average up to 63.5 kts per storm, which rounds up to 64 kts, or minimal hurricane strength. It pretty much goes without saying that the EPAC is in a much better shape than the Atlantic, which is currently averaging a paltry 52.9 kts per storm. To bring that average up to 63.5+ kts, the Atlantic would need the next storm to become a 191-kt (220 mph) Category 5, which ain't happening, or an average of 127 kts, 106 kts, 96 kts, 89 kts, 85 kts, or 82 kts from the next 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 storms, respectively. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:45, October 27, 2013 (UTC) :::Its been active in NS but it has been inactive with MH so the ACE is terrible I believe is average to below average which is a shame for all the name storms there has been Sonia will probably peak at 45 to 65 mph storm.Allanjeffs 03:54, October 27, 2013 (UTC) :::::Yeah the ACE still sucks, regardless of how many storms we've had, too few of them were long-lasting, let alone strong, and ACE is far below normal in both the EPac and the Atlantic. I expect this to become Sonia, but not a very strong storm, neither do I see it affecting land. Ryan1000 14:12, October 27, 2013 (UTC) ::::::This AOI, slowly coming together, now has a 30% chance of developing in the next five days. AndrewTalk To Me 21:56, October 27, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Here comes Sonia! I think it will peak as a moderate TS (around 50-60 mph). [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 23:00, October 27, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::It's up to a 50% chance of developing during the next 5 days (near 0% - 48 hours), but its still not on the TWO yet. I still think this will become Sonia. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 00:04, October 30, 2013 (UTC) Now it's on the TWO. 10% for two days and 50% for the next 5. Ryan1000 05:59, October 30, 2013 (UTC) : 30% and 60%. Now that Raymond's down and out, this one might become Sonia very quickly. Ryan1000 20:41, October 30, 2013 (UTC) ::: 50/70. Where is everybody? We have some''thing, you know...Btw, happy haloween. :D 'Ryan1000' 12:25, October 31, 2013 (UTC) ::: Happy halloween from Honduras but I doubt it will be stronger than 65mph if it develops into Sonia which it looks likely,I hope we have Sandra in two years from now.Allanjeffs 20:29, October 31, 2013 (UTC) :It's up to 70% (48 hours) and 80% (5 days). Sonia should come sometime during this creepy and starry night, when ghosts will be flying around in your bedroom while you are sleeping, and when kids and teens (including me) will go out trick-or-treating. I plan to dress into a scary costume tonight. I also think Sonia will peak as a strong TS (around 65 mph), but I hope we will see a hurricane out of this. Btw, happy Halloween!! :D I even have a new signature to celebrate today. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Happy 23:38, October 31, 2013 (UTC) :::HAPPY SONIAWEEN!!! XD LOL, anyways, I'm not allowed to go out trick or treating -_- Anyways lol. XD Lovely picture! It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 23:47, October 31, 2013 (UTC) :::All the models show this system bringing heavy rains to the Mexican coast and making a landfall there so I hope no landfall. :::::Even if it does, hopefully it dies down significantly before it hits, unlike Manuel. This would be a November storm if it develops now. 'Ryan1000' 00:09, November 1, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Now numbered. Forecast to peak as a 45 mph TS before moving into Mexico and dying. Here comes Sonia... 'Ryan1000' 11:07, November 1, 2013 (UTC) :At 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg), this depression should reach 40 knots (45 mph) before moving over Mexico. Speaking of which, Mexico has had a record-tying number of tropical cyclones, eight, make landfall in Mexico (Barbara, Barry, Fernand, Juliette, TD Eight, Ingrid, Manuel, and Octave). Assuming this depression makes landfall as forecast, we will shatter 1971's record as the year with the most Mexican landfalling tropical cyclones. AndrewTalk To Me 21:39, November 1, 2013 (UTC) ::I think this depression will become Sonia tonight, and it is predicted to make landfall in Mexico soon. I can't believe we are about to shatter 1971's record for the most Mexican landfalls in one season!! That's just insane! —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:38, November 2, 2013 (UTC) :::The depression's pressure is a tad lower, 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg), but it still has not reached tropical storm intensity. It is now only forecast to hit 35 knots (40 mph) per the NHC. Even if this system fails on the level of Priscilla, I will be glad we got our first EPAC 'S' name in seven years. AndrewTalk To Me 11:09, November 2, 2013 (UTC) :::Might not reach ts status and be the only td of the year like td 8 in the Atlantic.The majority of storms that form in November in the Epac typically just reach td strength,even though they are some exceptions like Kenneth of 2011.Allanjeffs 02:44, November 3, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Storm Sonia Guess Sonia disagrees with you Allan. Even though it's a fail. 'Ryan1000' 12:45, November 3, 2013 (UTC) Sonia is here! Although it will probably be a big epic failure TS storm. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 19:31, November 3, 2013 (UTC) : It might cause a little flooding in Mexico, but I doubt it'll be anything like Manuel or Ingrid earlier this year. 'Ryan1000' 19:47, November 3, 2013 (UTC) ::: Expected to dissipate on Monday... but OW! I GOT A BELLYACHE! After going to Pizza Hut... ANYWAY! sonia is gonna be a piece of weak fail, lol I gotta agree with you steve lol. and ryan, sonia can never be like mangrid. lol It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 21:42, November 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::Sonia tried. It only reached 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h)/1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg). It at least will tap Mexico as a tropical cyclone, unlike other failures such as Priscilla and Unala. AndrewTalk To Me 21:45, November 3, 2013 (UTC) ::::::lol at the fails It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 21:46, November 3, 2013 (UTC) Post-tropical cyclone Sonia Hit Mexico as a TS and died. I doubt it was anything severe. 'Ryan1000' 14:54, November 4, 2013 (UTC) And might the last storm and the last fail has come down.2013 looks to be done,or maybe nature might want to correct me ;PAllanjeffs 02:31, November 5, 2013 (UTC) : Farewell, Sonia. Yet another epic failure goes by, and I don't think it did much in Mexico. I think we will see Tico before all is done, although it will probably be another fail. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 03:07, November 5, 2013 (UTC) 98E.INVEST AOI.South of Mexico Well, well, well...just as the NHem is about to close up, one last AOI pops up south of Mexico. Hopefully it becomes Tico. Conditions are only expected to be ok for a day or two though. 'Ryan1000' 19:53, November 14, 2013 (UTC) 98E.INVEST ...And now Invested. 30% for 2 and 5 days. 'Ryan1000' 00:06, November 15, 2013 (UTC) :I am hoping Tico comes, although it definitely will not reach the intensity its 1983 predesscor did. AndrewTalk To Me 00:29, November 15, 2013 (UTC) ::I'm also hoping for Tico out of this, although it will be another weakling. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:47, November 15, 2013 (UTC) ::Not going to develop,down to 20%Allanjeffs 21:32, November 15, 2013 (UTC) ::::Probably not by now, shear is beginning to pick up. It likely missed it's chance already. 'Ryan1000' 21:45, November 15, 2013 (UTC) :::::It looks like Invest 98E has missed its chance to develop. However, Mexico might get some rain from this invest in the next few days. AndrewTalk To Me 22:06, November 15, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Looks like it missed its chance to develop. Maybe Tico will come later, or no more storms will come during the rest of the season. Mexico could still get some rain though. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 00:25, November 16, 2013 (UTC) :::::::Hold on, it looks like this invest temporarily redeemed itself. Organization has improved in the system, and it once again has a '''30%' chance of developing in both the next two and five days. AndrewTalk To Me 00:41, November 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::Never mind, Invest 98E's thunderstorms just got shredded apart by upper-level winds. It is down to a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two and five days again. AndrewTalk To Me 14:06, November 16, 2013 (UTC) ::::::::::And now 0%.Isaac829 17:48, November 16, 2013 (UTC) (←)Well, it has a 10% chance of becoming tropical in the next five days, but I doubt it. Regardless, Mexico will be in for some heavy rains and gusty winds. AndrewTalk To Me 18:46, November 16, 2013 (UTC) ::This AOI is done. It's not gonna become Tico, that's for sure. Mexico should also get pounded by some rain. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 20:39, November 16, 2013 (UTC) :::And...Invest 98E made landfall over Mexico and went off the TWO. AndrewTalk To Me 13:10, November 17, 2013 (UTC)